India’s Rising Food Inflation: The Dire Need for a Second Agricultural Revolution

September 15, 2023

Despite its reputation as a booming economy, India faces a pressing challenge: soaring food-price inflation. Imagine a nation, whose vast and diverse populace spans from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the tropical greens of Kerala, witnessing its food prices surge at an alarming rate. India’s food inflation dilemma is starkly illustrated by its recent statistics, underscoring the urgency of the situation. By July this year, inflation reached a notable 11%, a figure unseen in over a decade, straining both individual budgets and the broader economy. A distressing highlight from the FAO report indicates that in 2021, 74% of India’s populace—about a billion people—struggled to afford a nutritious diet, revealing the profound human impact behind the numbers. Highlighting the discrepancy further, a Mumbai-based study showcased a 65% rise in the cost of a traditional meal between 2018 and 2023. Contrarily, wage growth remains stunted: manual workers saw only a 38% increase, while salaried individuals experienced a 28% uptick.

These figures don’t merely represent economic data; they signify a decline in the quality of life, a potential increase in malnutrition, and the overarching shadows of a looming food crisis.This isn’t just about hunger; it’s a health crisis. In a nation that once pioneered the Green Revolution, ensuring food security for its people, this ascent in food prices not only tugs at the purse strings but also the very fabric of its socio-economic structure. As India treads this challenging terrain, it becomes imperative for both policymakers and citizens alike to understand the gravity of the situation and rally together for solutions.There’s an urgent cry for change, a second revolution if you will, that addresses the current challenges while learning from the past. Dive in as we explore the contours of this looming crisis and the potential solutions on the horizon.

RBI’s inflation targeting and its shortcomings

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) uses ‘inflation targeting’ to manage price stability through monetary adjustments, this strategy has consistently missed its mark over the last four years. The challenge is that the RBI can manage money supply but has little sway over factors like droughts, crop failures, or supply chain disruptions, which frequently drive India’s food price hikes. Essentially, the current method addresses the inflation effects rather than its root supply-side causes. Given these shifting economic realities, there’s a pressing need to move beyond traditional strategies. India’s food inflation demands a combined approach: macroeconomic tactics supported by sector-specific measures.

Historical overview:

The triumphs and trials of the Green Revolution

History has always been a profound teacher, offering insights into past actions to inform present choices. As India navigates its current food inflation scenario, it’s essential to cast an eye backward, to a period when the nation faced a somewhat similar dilemma—food scarcity—and responded with an unprecedented strategy: The Green Revolution. During the 1960s, India grappled with severe food shortages, exacerbated by back-to-back droughts, pushing the nation to the brink of famine. In response, the Green Revolution was initiated. The government swiftly introduced high-yielding seeds, made credit accessible to farmers, and established guaranteed procurement prices. This transformative strategy transitioned India from a food-importing nation to one that was self-reliant within years. Rural India underwent a metamorphosis as farmers embraced modern tools, resulting in higher yields and improved incomes. Globally, amidst the Cold War, India’s agrarian success showcased innovation and hope.

However, the Green Revolution also had its drawbacks. Its focus on cereals meant protein-rich pulses were neglected. The extensive use of chemical fertilisers, though beneficial initially, had long-term implications on soil health. The fixed procurement prices, while supporting farmers, sometimes stymied the push for greater productivity, subsequently influencing inflation. Additionally, the emphasis on food quantity occasionally overshadowed the critical aspect of nutritional quality. The Green Revolution, while a testament to India’s resilience and innovation, also serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in addressing contemporary food challenges.

Re-envisioning food security:

The elements of a Second Agricultural Revolution

India stands at a pivotal moment in its agricultural history, necessitating a reimagined strategy that seamlessly integrates sustainability, cutting-edge technology, and a farmer-focused ethos. The upcoming revolution should prioritize diversified farming, embrace advanced tech solutions, fortify farmer support systems, and prioritize quality alongside quantity in food production, ensuring that the nation is both fed and nourished amidst its inflation challenges. Dive into the comprehensive solutions below.

  1. Diversified crop portfolio: While the Green Revolution prioritised cereal crops, it’s crucial to widen the net now. Embracing a diverse crop portfolio, including pulses, legumes, and traditional grains, will ensure balanced nutrition while preserving bio-diversity.

  2. Sustainable farming practices: The side effects of the Green Revolution—soil degradation and reduced ground water—highlight the importance of eco-friendly farming. Techniques like crop rotation, organic farming, and integrated pest management can ensure long-term soil health, promoting sustained yields.

  3. Technological integration: In this digital age, embracing technology can revolutionize farming. From precision agriculture, using drones and sensors, to AI-driven crop predictions, technology can optimise inputs, reduce wastage, and maximise output.

  4. Farmer-centric policies: The Second Agricultural Revolution should be inherently farmer-focused. Policies must facilitate affordable credit, risk mitigation strategies, and post-harvest support. This also means reassessing procurement pricing models to drive both productivity and quality.

  5. Infrastructure development: Strengthening rural infrastructure, particularly storage and transport facilities, can reduce post-harvest losses. Cold storage chains, efficient road networks, and modernised mandis (marketplaces) will ensure that produce reaches consumers while retaining its quality and nutritional value.

  6. Revitalising India’s agricultural research framework: For years, the National Agricultural Research System (NARS), encompassing the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and several agricultural universities, has underpinned India’s agricultural advancements, bringing innovations and ensuring food security. Yet, with emerging challenges like climate change and shifting consumption habits, there’s a pressing need to rejuvenate NARS. Enter the National Research Foundation (NRF) Bill 2023, aimed at reinvigorating research in various sectors, including agriculture. This Bill could be transformative for NARS by ensuring focused funding, promoting interdisciplinary studies, enhancing collaborations between academia, industry, and farmers, and leveraging modern technologies like AI.

  7. Grassroots education: In India’s agrarian tapestry, the ‘gram sevak‘ once played an invaluable role, translating cutting-edge agricultural research into tangible practices for farmers. Over time, their pivotal presence waned, leaving a knowledge gap in the vast farming landscape. While Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) have commendably stepped in at district levels, disseminating innovations and training, their reach, given India’s vast farming expanse, has limitations. Reinvigorating the agricultural extension model, by revitalizing the role of gram sevaks and blending their legacy with modern technology, can bridge this chasm. As India stands poised for a Second Agricultural Revolution, such a synergistic approach can act as a linchpin, ensuring widespread knowledge dissemination, feedback-driven research, and ultimately, sustainable food security.

  8. States at the forefront: Central policies set the stage, but the essence of addressing India’s diverse food challenges lies in tailored state-led initiatives. Given India’s vast agricultural landscapes, cooperative federalism—where central and state governments cooperate—becomes essential. The Indian Constitution vests states with agricultural autonomy, but these policies need to resonate with a national vision. The National Food Security Act is one such paradigm, relying heavily on state-specific applications. The states’ role, facilitated by inter-state councils and grounded in cooperative federalism, remains integral to a holistic food-secure vision for India.

  9. Global collaborations: The Second Agricultural Revolution can also benefit from global expertise. Collaborating with nations that have successfully tackled similar challenges, exchanging research, and adapting best practices will accelerate India’s agricultural evolution.

In conclusion, the Second Agricultural Revolution is not just about increased food production, but rather a holistic approach that addresses quality, sustainability, and farmer welfare. As India confronts the challenges of rising food inflation, this comprehensive approach could offer a sustainable and equitable way forward, ensuring that the nation doesn’t just feed its people, but nourishes them.

Global success stories:

Paving the path for agricultural revival and combating food inflation

Around the globe, nations have developed and implemented innovative strategies to revitalize agriculture and curb food inflation. These success stories serve as valuable blueprints for India and other countries grappling with similar challenges.

  1. Brazil: Integrated crop-livestock-forest systems: Brazil’s integrated approach allows simultaneous crop cultivation, livestock rearing, and forest preservation. By optimizing land use, the system boosts productivity, diversifies income sources for farmers, and enhances soil fertility. Lessons for India: Adopting integrated land management could lead to multiple revenue streams, sustainable farming practices, and improved food security.

  1. Israel: Drip irrigation technology: Israel transformed its arid landscapes with the introduction of drip irrigation, maximizing water efficiency and ensuring that crops receive optimal moisture. Lessons for India: Embracing advanced irrigation techniques can enhance productivity, especially in water-scarce regions, thereby mitigating the risks of crop failures and subsequent price hikes.

  1. Netherlands: High-tech greenhouses: Despite its small size, the Netherlands is the world’s second-largest exporter of agricultural produce. High-tech greenhouses with climate control, LED lighting, and robotic automation allow for year-round cultivation, maximising yields. Lessons for India: Infusing technology into controlled agricultural environments can combat seasonal price surges and stabilize the food market.

  1. Kenya: Mobile-based microloans and crop insurance: Through platforms like M-Shwari, Kenyan farmers access small loans via their mobile phones. Alongside, they can also purchase crop insurance, offering financial protection against unpredictable weather events. Lessons for India: Digital finance solutions can empower small-scale farmers, ensuring they have the necessary capital and risk mitigation strategies to deal with volatile market conditions.

  1. China: Agri-tech research zones: China established specialised zones dedicated to agricultural technology research. These hubs facilitate innovations, test novel farming techniques, and fast-track the implementation of successful practices. Lessons for India: Establishing dedicated agri-tech zones can be instrumental in driving research and translating innovations directly to the fields.

Incorporating these global best practices into India’s agricultural framework can go a long way in bolstering agricultural productivity, reducing costs, and stabilizing food prices. By learning from the successes of other nations and adapting them to India’s unique context, we can ensure a resilient, self-sufficient, and prosperous agrarian future.

Conclusion

India stands at a pivotal crossroads, with food inflation pressures presenting both a challenge and an opportunity to reimagine its agricultural destiny. Tracing our agrarian roots, the successes and lessons of the Green Revolution provide invaluable insights. It’s evident that the next agricultural leap isn’t merely about increased yield—it’s about ensuring a balanced diet for all, underpinned by sustainability and ecological harmony.

The strategies elucidated in this exploration signal a direction where diversification, sustainable farming, technological embrace, farmer-centric policies, robust infrastructure, and international collaborations merge as a holistic response to the challenge. By aligning the legacy and strengths of NARS with the vision of the NRF, India is poised to usher in a golden era of agricultural research, one that prioritises both productivity and sustainability. Re-emphasising the grassroots importance of agricultural extension services further reinforces the importance of knowledge dissemination. In addition, acknowledging the indispensable role states play via cooperative federalism showcases the multifaceted approach required.

The vision is clear: an India where food security is achieved not just through quantity but, more importantly, quality. It’s about ensuring every Indian has access to a nutritious plate, bridging nutritional inequities, and making the most of our land’s bountiful potential in harmony with nature. As we gear towards this vision, our strategies and policies must be intertwined with the principles of innovation, inclusivity, and sustainability. The path forward is challenging, but with a unified approach, a self-sufficient and nutrition-rich future is not just a dream—it’s a plausible reality.

Additional Reading